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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.