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The Ashes could provide a reason to cheer, but this contest will also see the Australian team host more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day before the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Older Team Fascination Grows

For a couple of years there has been growing curiosity with the average age of this side and particularly the bowling attack. It is unusual to have almost every player in a Test side being above thirty, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test squad boasting a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

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Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued performing. Any side knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a batch of simultaneous retirements, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a train that would indeed be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, change is here, forced upon this Australian squad in the space of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the team management view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the balance experiences a far greater change with two players missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Test matches entering the attack after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Debutant Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories portray him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what further injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how tricky stress injuries can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of going down early in tournaments and a history of minor injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the series may witness the primary four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might experience transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a great day-night Brisbane option, but beyond that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the real unknown, and throughout it opportunity for the opposing side. You can hear that change a-coming, rolling round the corner, and England ain’t seen the success since they don’t know when.